15 Internacional Workshop on Operation Research IWOR 2023

The endemic permanence of COVID-19 in Cuba through a mathematical model.

No programado

20m

Facultad de Matemática y Computación

Ponente

Wilfredo Morales Lezca (Universidad de la Habana)

Descripción

The COVID-19 pandemic in Cuba had special circumstances. This work aims to present an expression for the basic reproductive number, with and without vaccination; to study its variation during the pandemic and to analyze how the appearance of an endemic equilibrium position is generated.
We also examine what kind of vaccination strategy should be designed for controlling the epidemic. To do this, we rely on a compartmental model, with demography, which explains the behavior of COVID-19 in Cuba as an endemic disease. Supported by the reported data, the existence of endemic points, fluctuations in the disease, and estimates of the vaccination speed required to keep the population immunized are made.

Keywords: Endemic; reproductive number; SIR model with demographics; COVID-19.