15 Internacional Workshop on Operation Research IWOR 2023

Curve Fitting for pandemic data using Generalized Logistic Regression

No programado

20m

Facultad de Matemática y Computación

Ponente

Mario Villalobos Arias (CIMPA and Escuela de Matemática, Universidad de Costa Rica Escuela de Matemática, Universidad de Costa Rica)

Descripción

In this work, a proposal is presented for the estimation of populations using generalized logistic curve fitting. These types of curves are used to study population growth, in this case population of people infected by the Covid-19 virus; and it can also be used to approximate the survival curve used in actuarial and similar studies. The resulting model could also be used to approximate daily cases and other data related to the pandemic, such as the number of hospitalized and ICU cases. In addition, an adjustment method for the detection of second and subsequent waves is also proposed. Examples are presented for some Latin American countries.

Keywrods: COVID-19; nonlinear regression; Logistic regression; curve fitting; trends; forecast.