Ponente
Descripción
Classical epidemiological models consider that the entire population lives in an area and that it is homogeneous. However, this is not real, since the populations live in different localities and this spatial heterogeneity affects the transmission of diseases. IN this paper, a model based on metapopulations on networks is proposed; which is nothing more than considering groups of populations of the same species that live in spatially isolated areas but that interact with each other. A network is built whose nodes are the municipalities of the city of Havana and the interaction between the populations occurs through Lagrangian movement. The COVID-19 epidemic in Cuba is worked as a study case, with data on confirmed and deceased from all the municipalities of the country for 478 days. The manipulation capacity of these approaches is proved, since they allow making adjustments that respond to cautionary measures such as the restriction of movement in certain areas and, in turn show what happens globally. For the prognosis in the metapopulations, the SIR and SAIL models were used.
